How might the presidential election affect the market and your investments?
- November 2, 2016
- Wealth and Investment Management
I’ve been asked this question every day for the past four or five months. As we head toward Election Day, what might we expect when one person or the other is elected? We never know for sure because these are markets and they are unpredictable, but my opinion is that in the short term (30-60 days), there won’t be any impact at all. In the meantime, I do expect short-term volatility and some swings in the market.
Look what happened with the Brexit. There was a two-day knee-jerk reaction followed by a return to normalcy. The election creates uncertainty in the markets, so I think over a period of a couple weeks, we will see some volatility. But then none of that is going to really make a lasting impact. The markets will return to normalcy after 30-60 days in my opinion.
We could have something else in the market that dictates a movement that is more lasting, like bad economic numbers, a terrorist attack or something similar. Now, where we can and will see an impact is with what new policies the new president will actually implement. That’s where we would see an effect, but even that takes time, because the president has to work with Congress. Will we have new tax laws? What will happen with trade? How do we deal with terrorism? What happens with the Federal Reserve?
Donald Trump wants to do new things with the Federal Reserve and kind of reinvent it. Hillary Clinton is a little more status quo with the Federal Reserve. There are a lot of things that could happen long term that could make an impact, but it depends on what policies the new president is actually able to get implemented.
That’s my take on the presidential election.